By Josh Buntin, Jared Valleskey, Charlotte Tenebrini Steckart & Cooper Wild
In a seemingly increasing trend, this winter has been outside the ordinary.
Green Bay missed another white Christmas in December, instead experiencing a temperature of 54 degrees. Green Bay didn’t experience its first major snow until January, with two major snow storms in the same week, which canceled school and kept workers at home. These storms were accompanied by frigid cold temperatures but were later contrasted by unusually high temperatures. For example, on February 27, temperatures reached a high of 70 degrees, and the next day only reached a high of 36 degrees. According to the National Weather Service, even before winter began, there were unusual weather trends. October began with summer-like weather. Abnormal temperatures, such as high temperatures in the middle of February, have stoked concerns that this is an example of climate change. The Door County Environmental Council says that winter temperatures in Green Bay and Milwaukee have increased by six degrees, the fastest increase in temperature of any major city. But, the issue of climate change has seen much debate at the state, national, and even international level.
But why is this happening? Why have winters started later, and why are there summer-like temperatures in February? The Fourth Estate spoke with experts to find out. Alexis Staniec is a meteorologist at WFRV-TV CBS Local 5, and she explained how we are currently experiencing El Niño (the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific, National Weather Service). It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.” Staniec herself documented the weather on her social media in addition to forecasting over the air, explaining the apparent chaotic weather. “Typically, Wisconsin has the warmer, wetter winter, and we are getting the warmer part, but not so much the wetter part, whereas last year we were wet and we were above average for most of the winter, a little bit colder than now, not by much, but I think that’s the main difference,” Staniec said. She went on to explain how January started warmer, then the frigid arctic blast, followed by a warm-up going into February, before ultimately culminating in the record high followed by the record drop at the end of February.
Brack Gillespie is a lecturer of Water Science at UW-Green Bay (UWGB) and said the winter seems warm because our perception of what is “normal” has shifted over time. Gillespie explained that our current understanding of what normal conditions are is based on a 30-year average, averaging conditions from 1991 to 2020, and will be updated in 2030. “The rapid day-to-day change is due to the passage of strong warm or cold fronts. Much like the stretching of a rubber band; the more you pull it, the greater the recoil. So, the further an air mass varies from the norm, the greater the impact of the swing from warm to cold or the reverse. I’d like to add that our perception of this change is rather subjective. By this, I mean that a 50° F day in January makes us ready to wear shorts, whereas the same day in July makes us chilly and wear a sweatshirt,” Gillespie said. He added that the changes in temperatures are more noticeable when people become accustomed to warmer temperatures, and then the temperatures drop to what would be considered more “average.”
The rapid change in temperatures can have an impact on some industries, particularly the farm industry. Some plants will begin to bloom early due to unusually warm temperatures and then be frozen out by a sudden shift to frigid cold temperatures. This can result in limited or delayed crop production, which will impact farmers and their businesses. It can also affect other industries, such as snowmobiling or ice fishing, which will lose out on business because of low snow totals. It can even affect bird migration patterns through the changing of atmospheric pressure, creating cooler temperatures and more storms. “And then if we do get that colder spell to come in April, then frost will come on these plants, and then they’re just going to die. So crop production is really definitely messed up from this, and it could potentially lead to limited crop production of what we would normally get here in the winter, in early spring, or later. So maybe grape season is bad, and then it affects businesses and stuff like that,” Staniec explained. Gillespie added that businesses that rely on the cold suffer. “Resorts, sporting goods stores, ski hills, and restaurants all suffer due to a lack of business. Additionally, groundwater doesn’t get a typical recharge from snow melt, soil moisture levels are low for growth of crops, and there is currently a high fire danger statewide,” he said.
Weather not only affects people’s day-to-day lives but also has a very impact on their mindsets and emotions. Compared to previous years, this year’s winter has shown people that the weather can be unpredictable. As mentioned earlier, the United States has not seen this drastic change in weather in years, and not only has this had an effect on the environment, but it has also affected the wellbeing and mental health of many.
Robert Steckart, a Green Bay local, said, “With my heart, I had to have Kyle, the kid that lives next door, to snowblow for me only twice.” Steckart is 79 and lives in Ashwaubenon. He has spent his whole life here, so he can attest to the mild winter, “The snow is minuscule compared to normal years. A lot of people who plow snow for a living were out of work this winter. At my cottage up in Minocqua, the guy who plows for us is out of work right now. They ended up opening up the four-wheeler runs because the snowmobilers did not have enough snow to run on.”
While winters seem to be more regularly starting later and come with abnormal weather conditions, continuing to affect businesses along with people’s mental health, it is not forever. It is not difficult to forecast abnormal weather. Abnormal weather can still come as a surprise, even to meteorologists. “It’s much too bad to forecast, but it is just confusing at times because if I’m just clicking around on a graphic and I see a temperature trend of 70 to 13 [degrees], that’s pretty wild. And it makes you think that the graphics are wrong. Let me go see what, and I’ll go look and actually forecast, and I’m looking out, and I see this crazy arctic air coming in from Canada, and you’re like, ‘Why is that happening?’” Staniec said. But, conditions do eventually stabilize. The abnormal becomes the normal, whether this is good or not. Gillespie put it this way, saying, “No doubt the conditions will eventually stabilize, but as you’ve likely heard, this may well become the new norm. Anecdotally, I look back to the 1970s and deer hunting with my father. Back then, you could count on snow in the woods and swamps being frozen; conditions like this are now the exception rather than the rule. But as the saying goes, if you don’t like the weather, wait 10 minutes…”
